Earnings Update: Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:PATK) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

It's been a sad week for Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:PATK), who've watched their investment drop 14% to US$116 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$919m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.80. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Patrick Industries

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Patrick Industries' ten analysts is for revenues of US$3.98b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 9.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 23% to US$8.46. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.98 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$142, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Patrick Industries at US$168 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Patrick Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Patrick Industries.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Patrick Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Patrick Industries going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Patrick Industries you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.