Stock Analysis

Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR) adds US$102m to market cap in the past 7 days, though investors from three years ago are still down 30%

NasdaqGS:LAZR
Source: Shutterstock

Over the last month the Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) has been much stronger than before, rebounding by 35%. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 30% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

View our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies

SWOT Analysis for Luminar Technologies

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
  • Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
  • Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
  • Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.

Luminar Technologies wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over three years, Luminar Technologies grew revenue at 44% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. While its revenue increased, the share price dropped at a rate of 9% per year. That seems like an unlucky result for holders. It's possible that the prior share price assumed unrealistically high future growth. Still, with high hopes now tempered, now might prove to be an opportunity to buy.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:LAZR Earnings and Revenue Growth June 14th 2023

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Luminar Technologies will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Luminar Technologies shareholders are up 1.1% for the year. While you don't go broke making a profit, this return was actually lower than the average market return of about 17%. The silver lining is that the recent rise is far preferable to the annual loss of 9% that shareholders have suffered over the last three years. We hope the turnaround in fortunes continues. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Luminar Technologies better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Luminar Technologies that you should be aware of.

Luminar Technologies is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NasdaqGS:LAZR

Luminar Technologies

An automotive technology company, provides sensor technologies and software for passenger cars and commercial trucks in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East.

Medium-low with limited growth.

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