The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Highwealth Construction Corp. (TPE:2542) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Highwealth Construction Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2020, Highwealth Construction had NT$111.4b of debt, up from NT$88.1b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had NT$18.9b in cash, and so its net debt is NT$92.5b.
How Strong Is Highwealth Construction's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Highwealth Construction had liabilities of NT$102.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of NT$30.7b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of NT$18.9b and NT$2.19b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling NT$111.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the NT$55.1b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Highwealth Construction would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Highwealth Construction has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 25.0 which suggests a meaningful debt load. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 4.1 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Worse, Highwealth Construction's EBIT was down 32% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Highwealth Construction can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Highwealth Construction saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Highwealth Construction's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its net debt to EBITDA also fails to instill confidence. It looks to us like Highwealth Construction carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you harvest honey without a bee suit, you risk getting stung, so we'd probably stay away from this particular stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Highwealth Construction is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are potentially serious...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About TWSE:2542
Highwealth Construction
Engages in the development, construction, leasing, and sale of residential and commercial buildings in Taiwan.
High growth potential with adequate balance sheet.