Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (IBSE:TOASO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of TOASO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TOASO (TRY83.4) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (TRY69.28)

TOASO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

TOASO Stock Overview

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi manufactures and sells passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Turkey.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (8.7x) is below the TR market (11.3x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.7% per year

Earnings grew by 82.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi Competitors

Ford Otomotiv Sanayi

IBSE:FROTO

₺118.7b

Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret

IBSE:KARSN

₺6.5b

Brisa Bridgestone Sabanci Lastik Sanayi ve Ticaret

IBSE:BRISA

₺11.5b

Kordsa Teknik Tekstil

IBSE:KORDS

₺9.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₺83.40
52 Week High	₺99.70
52 Week Low	₺38.00
Beta	1.14
1 Month Change	36.95%
3 Month Change	10.25%
1 Year Change	95.96%
3 Year Change	342.44%
5 Year Change	161.77%
Change since IPO	300,505.54%

Shareholder Returns

	TOASO	TR Auto	TR Market
7D	-0.9%	0.9%	2.2%
1Y	96.0%	-4.4%	75.6%

Return vs Industry: TOASO exceeded the TR Auto industry which returned -4.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TOASO exceeded the TR Market which returned 81% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TOASO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TOASO volatility
TOASO Average Weekly Movement	6.0%
Auto Industry Average Movement	5.3%
Market Average Movement	5.9%
10% most volatile stocks in TR Market	8.9%
10% least volatile stocks in TR Market	4.1%

Stable Share Price: TOASO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of TR stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TOASO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1968	6,234	Cengiz Eroldu	https://www.tofas.com.tr

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi manufactures and sells passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Turkey. It also produces various automotive spare parts, as well as trades in automobile and spare parts; and provides consumer financing services. The company offers its products under the Fiat, Fiat Professional, Alfa Romeo, and Jeep, as well as Opar and Magneti Marelli brands.

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi Fundamentals Summary

How do Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TOASO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₺41.70b
Earnings (TTM)	₺4.80b
Revenue (TTM)	₺42.78b

8.7x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Is TOASO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TOASO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₺42.78b
Cost of Revenue	₺33.73b
Gross Profit	₺8.24b
Other Expenses	₺3.43b
Earnings	₺4.80b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	9.61
Gross Margin	19.26%
Net Profit Margin	11.23%
Debt/Equity Ratio	144.7%

How did TOASO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

7.7%

Current Dividend Yield

67%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TOASO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOASO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TOASO. This is calculated by dividing TOASO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TOASO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₺41.70b

TOASO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOASO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TOASO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOASO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.4x
FROTO Ford Otomotiv Sanayi	9.5x	12.5%	₺118.7b
KARSN Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret	39.9x	n/a	₺6.5b
BRISA Brisa Bridgestone Sabanci Lastik Sanayi ve Ticaret	8.4x	-14.1%	₺11.5b
KORDS Kordsa Teknik Tekstil	8x	35.2%	₺9.5b
TOASO Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi	8.7x	12.7%	₺41.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOASO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (16.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOASO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOASO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.7x
Fair PE Ratio	10.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOASO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOASO (TRY83.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (TRY69.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOASO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TOASO's forecast earnings growth (12.7% per year) is above the savings rate (8.9%).

Earnings vs Market: TOASO's earnings (12.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the TR market (13% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TOASO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TOASO's revenue (21.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the TR market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TOASO's revenue (21.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TOASO's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (58.6%).

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Past Performance

How has Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

27.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TOASO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TOASO's current net profit margins (11.2%) are higher than last year (8.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TOASO's earnings have grown significantly by 27.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TOASO's earnings growth over the past year (82.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (27.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TOASO earnings growth over the past year (82.4%) exceeded the Auto industry 14.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst TOASO's Return on Equity (85.03%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

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Financial Health

How is Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TOASO's short term assets (TRY23.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (TRY21.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: TOASO's short term assets (TRY23.4B) exceed its long term liabilities (TRY3.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TOASO's net debt to equity ratio (30.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: TOASO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 157.6% to 144.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TOASO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (102.8%).

Interest Coverage: TOASO earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

7.67%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TOASO's dividend (7.67%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the TR market (0.67%).

High Dividend: TOASO's dividend (7.67%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the TR market (3.27%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TOASO has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: TOASO's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (66.6%), TOASO's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (43%), TOASO's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Cengiz Eroldu

7.58yrs

Tenure

Mr. Cengiz Eroldu has been the Chief Executive Officer of TOFAS Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S. since January 2015. Mr. Eroldu served as the Chief Financial Officer of TOFAS Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S. until...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TOASO's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TOASO's board of directors are considered experienced (4.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/14 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31