Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of TOASO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TOASO (TRY196) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (TRY161.15)

Is TOASO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOASO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOASO (TRY196) is trading above our estimate of fair value (TRY161.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOASO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOASO?

Key metric: As TOASO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TOASO. This is calculated by dividing TOASO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TOASO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	14.8x
Earnings	₺6.62b
Market Cap	₺99.45b

TOASO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.6x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOASO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOASO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.2x
FROTO Ford Otomotiv Sanayi	11x	40.5%	₺385.7b
EGEEN Ege Endüstri ve Ticaret	52.6x	n/a	₺34.9b
BRISA Brisa Bridgestone Sabanci Lastik Sanayi ve Ticaret	14.9x	39.1%	₺29.3b
TRI Trigano	6.3x	-7.9%	€2.3b
TOASO Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi	14.8x	49.0%	₺99.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the peer average (21.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOASO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOASO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOASO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.8x
Fair PE Ratio	8.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOASO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOASO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	₺196.00	₺377.74 +92.7%	20.4%	₺546.00	₺309.27	n/a	12
Nov ’25	₺186.00	₺381.50 +105.1%	20.0%	₺546.00	₺309.27	n/a	12
Oct ’25	₺205.70	₺378.74 +84.1%	19.7%	₺546.00	₺306.31	n/a	13
Sep ’25	₺244.00	₺364.80 +49.5%	16.2%	₺510.00	₺306.31	n/a	12
Aug ’25	₺275.75	₺375.23 +36.1%	16.9%	₺510.00	₺306.31	n/a	12
Jul ’25	₺338.75	₺362.34 +7.0%	14.0%	₺450.20	₺306.31	n/a	11
Jun ’25	₺308.75	₺362.34 +17.4%	14.0%	₺450.20	₺306.31	n/a	11
May ’25	₺275.25	₺352.72 +28.1%	15.2%	₺450.20	₺259.24	n/a	11
Apr ’25	₺286.50	₺362.07 +26.4%	13.0%	₺450.20	₺310.00	n/a	10
Mar ’25	₺261.00	₺345.05 +32.2%	12.4%	₺436.20	₺280.00	n/a	10
Feb ’25	₺251.75	₺348.71 +38.5%	14.2%	₺444.40	₺280.00	n/a	11
Jan ’25	₺210.00	₺368.50 +75.5%	14.8%	₺444.40	₺280.00	n/a	11
Dec ’24	₺239.10	₺361.08 +51.0%	16.0%	₺444.40	₺279.42	n/a	12
Nov ’24	₺243.20	₺348.38 +43.2%	16.9%	₺436.20	₺248.38	₺186.00	12
Oct ’24	₺295.50	₺336.13 +13.7%	13.6%	₺400.00	₺248.38	₺205.70	12
Sep ’24	₺280.50	₺326.59 +16.4%	18.6%	₺400.00	₺172.80	₺244.00	14
Aug ’24	₺301.40	₺324.73 +7.7%	12.3%	₺370.00	₺248.38	₺275.75	13
Jul ’24	₺252.50	₺280.35 +11.0%	6.5%	₺302.00	₺242.50	₺338.75	11
Jun ’24	₺206.50	₺244.48 +18.4%	19.6%	₺302.00	₺172.80	₺308.75	14
May ’24	₺192.00	₺242.50 +26.3%	19.4%	₺302.00	₺172.80	₺275.25	14
Apr ’24	₺186.70	₺215.63 +15.5%	17.6%	₺280.00	₺166.00	₺286.50	13
Mar ’24	₺176.70	₺176.15 -0.3%	20.8%	₺231.40	₺106.00	₺261.00	12
Feb ’24	₺145.60	₺171.86 +18.0%	23.5%	₺231.40	₺106.00	₺251.75	12
Jan ’24	₺165.70	₺137.63 -16.9%	19.2%	₺193.10	₺106.00	₺210.00	14
Dec ’23	₺141.00	₺127.28 -9.7%	13.3%	₺158.75	₺106.00	₺239.10	14
Nov ’23	₺100.80	₺123.56 +22.6%	13.5%	₺158.75	₺106.00	₺243.20	14

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.