Bank of Ayudhya Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of BAY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BAY (THB25) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (THB51.56)

Is BAY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAY (THB25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (THB51.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAY?

Key metric: As BAY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BAY. This is calculated by dividing BAY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BAY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	5.9x
Earnings	฿31.16b
Market Cap	฿183.89b

BAY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	7.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.4x
TTB TMBThanachart Bank	8.4x	4.7%	฿175.3b
BBL Bangkok Bank	6.5x	3.6%	฿285.4b
KTB Krung Thai Bank	7.3x	6.0%	฿286.5b
KBANK Kasikornbank	7.5x	6.2%	฿354.2b
BAY Bank of Ayudhya	5.9x	0.8%	฿183.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.9x) compared to the peer average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Banks Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.9x) compared to the Asian Banks industry average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.9x
Fair PE Ratio	7.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	฿25.00	฿27.00 +8.0%	3.7%	฿28.00	฿26.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	฿24.90	฿27.00 +8.4%	3.7%	฿28.00	฿26.00	n/a	2
Oct ’25	฿26.75	฿27.00 +0.9%	3.7%	฿28.00	฿26.00	n/a	2
Aug ’25	฿24.30	฿28.00 +15.2%	7.1%	฿30.00	฿26.00	n/a	2
Jul ’25	฿24.40	฿29.50 +20.9%	1.7%	฿30.00	฿29.00	n/a	2
Jun ’25	฿25.00	฿29.50 +18.0%	1.7%	฿30.00	฿29.00	n/a	2
May ’25	฿26.50	฿29.50 +11.3%	1.7%	฿30.00	฿29.00	n/a	2
Apr ’25	฿27.00	฿29.50 +9.3%	1.7%	฿30.00	฿29.00	n/a	2
Mar ’25	฿26.75	฿29.50 +10.3%	1.7%	฿30.00	฿29.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	฿26.75	฿33.00 +23.4%	6.1%	฿35.00	฿31.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	฿28.25	฿33.00 +16.8%	6.1%	฿35.00	฿31.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	฿27.75	฿33.00 +18.9%	6.1%	฿35.00	฿31.00	n/a	2
Nov ’24	฿28.50	฿33.00 +15.8%	6.1%	฿35.00	฿31.00	฿24.90	2
Oct ’24	฿31.25	฿37.50 +20.0%	1.3%	฿38.00	฿37.00	฿26.75	2
Sep ’24	฿33.00	฿37.50 +13.6%	1.3%	฿38.00	฿37.00	฿24.80	2
Aug ’24	฿32.00	฿38.33 +19.8%	3.3%	฿40.00	฿37.00	฿24.30	3
Jul ’24	฿30.75	฿38.33 +24.7%	3.3%	฿40.00	฿37.00	฿24.40	3
Jun ’24	฿30.50	฿38.33 +25.7%	3.3%	฿40.00	฿37.00	฿25.00	3
May ’24	฿29.25	฿37.25 +27.4%	5.8%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿26.50	4
Apr ’24	฿29.00	฿36.50 +25.9%	6.3%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿27.00	4
Mar ’24	฿29.50	฿37.25 +26.3%	7.4%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿26.75	4
Feb ’24	฿32.00	฿38.44 +20.1%	6.7%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿26.75	4
Jan ’24	฿30.75	฿37.19 +20.9%	7.3%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿28.25	4
Dec ’23	฿30.75	฿37.13 +20.7%	7.2%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿27.75	4
Nov ’23	฿31.50	฿37.13 +17.9%	7.2%	฿40.00	฿34.00	฿28.50	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Thai Credit Bank

฿24.9b

A retail bank, provides financial services to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises in Thailand.

CREDIT-R

฿20.20

-10.6%

n/a

Bangkok Bank

฿285.4b

Provides various commercial banking products and services in Thailand and internationally.

BBL

฿149.50

0.7%

-1.3%

Krung Thai Bank

฿286.5b

Provides various commercial banking products and services.

KTB-R

฿20.50

13.3%