Some Investors May Be Worried About AEM Holdings' (SGX:AWX) Returns On Capital

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at AEM Holdings (SGX:AWX) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for AEM Holdings, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.14 = S$90m ÷ (S$800m - S$178m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

Thus, AEM Holdings has an ROCE of 14%. By itself that's a normal return on capital and it's in line with the industry's average returns of 14%.

View our latest analysis for AEM Holdings

Above you can see how the current ROCE for AEM Holdings compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

The Trend Of ROCE

When we looked at the ROCE trend at AEM Holdings, we didn't gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 58% over the last five years. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.

On a side note, AEM Holdings has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 22% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.

The Key Takeaway

We're a bit apprehensive about AEM Holdings because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Yet despite these poor fundamentals, the stock has gained a huge 414% over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.

AEM Holdings does have some risks, we noticed 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.