Lion Asiapac (SGX:BAZ) Could Be At Risk Of Shrinking As A Company

Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. Having said that, after a brief look, Lion Asiapac (SGX:BAZ) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

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Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Lion Asiapac:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.0024 = S$148k ÷ (S$74m - S$11m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

Therefore, Lion Asiapac has an ROCE of 0.2%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Basic Materials industry average of 7.3%.

See our latest analysis for Lion Asiapac

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Lion Asiapac.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Lion Asiapac Tell Us?

In terms of Lion Asiapac's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 1.0%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Lion Asiapac becoming one if things continue as they have.

While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 15%, which has impacted the ROCE. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.

What We Can Learn From Lion Asiapac's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 21% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

Lion Asiapac does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.