NOTE AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, NOTE AB (publ) (STO:NOTE) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr1.2b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just kr1.95 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NOTE's dual analysts is for revenues of kr4.63b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 16% to kr10.09. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr4.72b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.18 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for NOTE

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.3% to kr197, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that NOTE's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 36% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NOTE to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NOTE. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for NOTE you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.