Yubico AB Just Missed EPS By 43%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Yubico AB (STO:YUBICO) shares plunged 23% in the week since its latest first-quarter results, closing yesterday at kr138. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr0.58, some 43% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr623m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yubico's four analysts is for revenues of kr2.63b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 10% to kr4.46. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr2.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr5.34 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Yubico

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the kr259 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yubico at kr275 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr240. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Yubico is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Yubico's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Yubico's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 27% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Yubico is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yubico. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at kr259, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Yubico going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.