Earnings Miss: Yubico AB Missed EPS By 21% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Yubico AB (STO:YUBICO) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr590m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just kr0.91 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yubico after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Yubico

Following the latest results, Yubico's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr3.05b in 2025. This would be a major 34% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 52% to kr6.06. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr2.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr5.81 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of kr322, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Yubico analyst has a price target of kr335 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr300. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 26% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 30% annual growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. So although Yubico is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Yubico's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Yubico going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Yubico (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.