Micro Systemation (OM:MSAB B) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MSAB B when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MSAB B (SEK47.95) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK136.25)

MSAB B fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

MSAB B Stock Overview

Micro Systemation AB (publ) provides forensic technology for mobile device examination worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 64.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 29.05% per year

Earnings grew by 96.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Does not have a meaningful market cap (SEK886M)

Micro Systemation Competitors

Kentima Holding

OM:KENH

kr100.6m

Sleep Cycle

OM:SLEEP

kr767.4m

4C Group

OM:4C

kr1.2b

Formpipe Software

OM:FPIP

kr1.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Micro Systemation
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr47.95
52 Week High	kr64.60
52 Week Low	kr33.50
Beta	0.98
1 Month Change	6.44%
3 Month Change	-6.53%
1 Year Change	-4.10%
3 Year Change	70.64%
5 Year Change	-20.42%
Change since IPO	136.21%

Shareholder Returns

	MSAB B	SE Software	SE Market
7D	0.2%	-2.5%	-2.3%
1Y	-4.1%	-57.1%	-23.1%

Return vs Industry: MSAB B exceeded the Swedish Software industry which returned -57.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MSAB B exceeded the Swedish Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MSAB B's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MSAB B volatility
MSAB B Average Weekly Movement	5.6%
Software Industry Average Movement	8.5%
Market Average Movement	7.3%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.9%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.6%

Stable Share Price: MSAB B is less volatile than 75% of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MSAB B's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1984	193	Joel Bollo	https://www.msab.com

Micro Systemation AB (publ) provides forensic technology for mobile device examination worldwide. The company offers XRY software that retrieves information, such as pictures, SMS, call history, contact lists, and application data from smart and mobile phones, 3G modems, GPS, and tablet devices. Its XRY software products include XRY logical, a software solution that enables investigators to access and recover live and file system data from the device right on the crime scene; XRY Physical, a software solution, which is used for the physical recovery of data from mobile devices; XRY Cloud to recover data beyond the mobile device; XRY PinPoint enables users to extract and decode data from non-standard mobile devices; XRY Camera, a hardware-based solution for forensic examiners to capture photos of the examined devices and screenshots to complement XRY reports; XRY Express that provides workflow for mobile device extractions, which enables processing by field-based investigators and others; and XRY Photon, a mobile examination tool that enables text search, filtering, and other types of analysis.

Micro Systemation Fundamentals Summary

How do Micro Systemation's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MSAB B fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr885.56m
Earnings (TTM)	kr35.32m
Revenue (TTM)	kr360.76m

25.1x

P/E Ratio

2.5x

P/S Ratio

Is MSAB B overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MSAB B income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr360.76m
Cost of Revenue	kr46.08m
Gross Profit	kr314.69m
Other Expenses	kr279.36m
Earnings	kr35.32m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 26, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.91
Gross Margin	87.23%
Net Profit Margin	9.79%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did MSAB B perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MSAB B undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSAB B?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MSAB B. This is calculated by dividing MSAB B's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MSAB B's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr885.56m

MSAB B key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.7x
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MSAB B's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MSAB B PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MSAB B vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	33x
KENH Kentima Holding	23.9x	n/a	kr100.6m
SLEEP Sleep Cycle	22.8x	31.5%	kr767.4m
4C 4C Group	24x	19.8%	kr1.2b
FPIP Formpipe Software	61.5x	47.4%	kr1.5b
MSAB B Micro Systemation	25.1x	29.1%	kr885.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MSAB B is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the peer average (33x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MSAB B's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Software Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MSAB B is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the Swedish Software industry average (27.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSAB B's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSAB B PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	25.1x
Fair PE Ratio	32.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MSAB B is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MSAB B when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MSAB B (SEK47.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK136.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSAB B is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Micro Systemation forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

29.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSAB B's forecast earnings growth (29.1% per year) is above the savings rate (0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: MSAB B's earnings (29.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MSAB B's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MSAB B's revenue (12.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (10.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSAB B's revenue (12.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSAB B's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (40.4%).

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Past Performance

How has Micro Systemation performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-17.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MSAB B has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MSAB B's current net profit margins (9.8%) are higher than last year (6.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MSAB B's earnings have declined by 17.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MSAB B's earnings growth over the past year (96.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (-17.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MSAB B earnings growth over the past year (96.7%) exceeded the Software industry 31.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: MSAB B's Return on Equity (35.3%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Micro Systemation's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MSAB B's short term assets (SEK195.6M) exceed its short term liabilities (SEK105.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: MSAB B's short term assets (SEK195.6M) exceed its long term liabilities (SEK5.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MSAB B is debt free.

Reducing Debt: MSAB B has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MSAB B has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: MSAB B has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Micro Systemation current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.96%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate MSAB B's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate MSAB B's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MSAB B's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MSAB B's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: MSAB B is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as MSAB B has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Joel Bollo (54 yo)

no data

Tenure

kr3,986,000

Compensation

Mr. Joel Bollö serves as Chief Executive Officer of Micro Systemation AB and served as its President until 2022. Mr. Bollö was Chief Executive Officer of DLX AB. Mr. Bollö was a Key Account Manager of Netw...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Joel's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the Swedish market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Joel's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MSAB B's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: MSAB B's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31