Is Midsummer (STO:MIDS) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Midsummer AB (publ) (STO:MIDS) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Midsummer

What Is Midsummer's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Midsummer had kr235.0m of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had kr95.8m in cash, and so its net debt is kr139.2m.

How Healthy Is Midsummer's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Midsummer had liabilities of kr109.8m due within a year, and liabilities of kr245.4m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of kr95.8m and kr37.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total kr222.3m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of kr224.0m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Midsummer's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

In the last year Midsummer had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 15%, to kr59m. We would much prefer see growth.

Caveat Emptor

Not only did Midsummer's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Indeed, it lost a very considerable kr172m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled kr70m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 4 warning signs with Midsummer (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.