Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ) (STO:HM B) After Its Half-Yearly Report

Investors in H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ) (STO:HM B) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.6% to close at kr133 following the release of its half-yearly results. H & M Hennes & Mauritz reported kr112b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.85 beat expectations, being 5.0% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, H & M Hennes & Mauritz's 25 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be kr230.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 12% to kr6.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr234.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr7.37 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for H & M Hennes & Mauritz

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr136, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic H & M Hennes & Mauritz analyst has a price target of kr165 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr110. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the H & M Hennes & Mauritz's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that H & M Hennes & Mauritz's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for H & M Hennes & Mauritz. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that H & M Hennes & Mauritz's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple H & M Hennes & Mauritz analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for H & M Hennes & Mauritz that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.