Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (STO:BALD B) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (STO:BALD B) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.5% to close at kr72.72 following the release of its first-quarter results. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 5.5%to hit kr3.1b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Fastighets AB Balder

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Fastighets AB Balder's five analysts is for revenues of kr12.7b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Fastighets AB Balder forecast to report a statutory profit of kr3.22 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr12.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.47 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at kr76.00, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Fastighets AB Balder, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr80.00 and the most bearish at kr70.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Fastighets AB Balder's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Compare this to the 65 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Fastighets AB Balder's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fastighets AB Balder. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Fastighets AB Balder going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Fastighets AB Balder (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.