Price Target Changed • Jun 10
Price target decreased by 29% to kr98.25 Down from kr139, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 114% above last closing price of kr46.00. Stock is down 49% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of kr8.30 next year compared to a net loss per share of kr20.08 last year. Reported Earnings • May 11
First quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: Revenue: kr170.0m (down 39% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: kr106.0m (loss narrowed 46% from 1Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 51%. Revenue is forecast to grow 32% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 68% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 52% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Apr 18
ALM Equity AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, May 19, 2026 ALM Equity AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, May 19, 2026, at 15:00 W. Europe Standard Time. Location: at the law firm dla piper sweden kb, at sveavagen 4, 111 57, stockholm Sweden New Risk • Mar 15
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 38% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 38% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (kr874.9m market cap, or US$92.5m). Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2025 earnings released: kr12.39 loss per share (vs kr73.63 loss in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: kr12.39 loss per share (improved from kr73.63 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: kr985.0m (down 69% from FY 2024). Net loss: kr215.0m (loss narrowed 80% from FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 37% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 53% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Feb 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 39% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 39% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (kr885.3m market cap, or US$97.8m). New Risk • Feb 16
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: kr892.3m (US$99.8m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (kr892.3m market cap, or US$99.8m). New Risk • Jan 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swedish stocks, typically moving 8.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2025 earnings released Third quarter 2025 results: Revenue: kr246.0m (down 63% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: kr125.0m (loss narrowed 84% from 3Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 4.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 22% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 56% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. New Risk • Oct 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 39% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 39% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (kr899.2m market cap, or US$95.4m). New Risk • Oct 14
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 2 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: kr1.1b Forecast net loss in 2 years: kr47m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (kr47m net loss in 2 years). Market cap is less than US$100m (kr874.9m market cap, or US$91.5m). New Risk • Sep 15
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: kr916.6m (US$98.8m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Jul 18
Second quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: Revenue: kr258.0m (down 71% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: kr65.0m (down 218% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 57%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 4.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 14 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 17
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to kr81.60. The fair value is estimated to be kr106, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 43% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Major Estimate Revision • May 13
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 23% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from kr3.36b to kr2.58b. Forecast loss of -kr9.91, down from profit of kr6.08 per share profit previously. Real Estate industry in Sweden expected to see average net income growth of 43% next year. Consensus price target of kr141 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.6% to kr90.60 over the past week. Announcement • May 09
ALM Equity AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2025 ALM Equity AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2025, at 15:00 W. Europe Standard Time. Location: at the law firm dla piper sweden kb, at sveavagen 4, 111 57, stockholm Sweden Reported Earnings • Apr 28
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: kr73.63 loss per share (improved from kr194 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: kr3.13b (up 31% from FY 2023). Net loss: kr1.08b (loss narrowed 49% from FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 23%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 43%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 5.1%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 32 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: kr54.73 loss per share (improved from kr194 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: kr3.13b (up 31% from FY 2023). Net loss: kr950.0m (loss narrowed 55% from FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 23%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 43%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 36 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 25
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from kr2.82b to kr3.36b. EPS estimate increased from kr4.55 to kr7.74 per share. Net income forecast to grow 80% next year vs 43% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Sweden. Consensus price target of kr193 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at kr134 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: kr43.78 loss per share (vs kr16.86 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: kr43.78 loss per share (further deteriorated from kr16.86 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: kr662.0m (up 394% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: kr760.0m (loss widened 311% from 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 44 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Oct 03
Aermont Capital Real Estate Fund V SCSp a fund managed by Aermont Capital LLP completed the acquisition of 60% stake in Svenska Nyttobostäder AB (publ) (OM:NYTTO) from ALM Equity AB (publ) (OM:ALM). Aermont Capital Real Estate Fund V SCSp a fund managed by Aermont Capital LLP agreed to acquire 60% stake in Svenska Nyttobostäder AB (publ) (OM:NYTTO) from ALM Equity AB (publ) (OM:ALM) for SEK 1.9 billion on August 2, 2024. ALM Equity and Aermont Capital Real Estate Fund V SVSp, "Aermont" have signed an agreement to form a Joint Venture for the portfolio of assets that ALM Equity is merging into from Svenska Nyttobostäder . The aim is to implement and accelerate the business plan communicated by ALM Equity and develop new housing, sell completed apartments on the condominium market and manage rental housing. The parties' ambitions are to acquire additional land for the development of housing in Stockholm. For ALM Equity, the transaction also means that liquidity is freed up, which lowers net indebtedness and momentarily creates a net cash position in the parent company. The joint company will be owned 40 percent by ALM Equity and 60 percent by Aermont, the holding will be reported as an associated company after the transaction. ALM Equity sells 60 percent of Nyttobostäder for SEK 1.9 billion based on book values, where the underlying property value totals approximately SEK 8.4 billion. In total, the transaction includes around 2,200 investment homes, 1,000 completed homes being sold on the condominium market and legally binding building rights for around 2,100 more homes. The deal contains approximately 100,000 square meters of lettable area and building rights for approximately 130,000 square meters of light BTA. The transaction is conditional on the merger process between ALM Equity and Svenska Nyttobostäder being completed as well as approval from the lenders concerned. The conditions are deemed to have been met during the month of October. After the transaction, in addition to liquidity of SEK 1.9 billion, ALM Equity will have a holding of 40 percent in the joint company, which is valued at approximately SEK 700 million.
ALM Equity has engaged Tango Capital Markets as financial adviser, Skierfe Advokatfirma as legal adviser in connection with the Transaction and had capital market advice from Advokatfirmaet Schjødt AS. Corinne Ekman, Caroline Jägenstedt Wikman, Anna Eriksson, Andreas Holmqvist and Foad Hoseinan of Gernandt & Danielsson Advokatbyrå KB, Cushman & Wakefield have acted as advisors to Aermont. PWC served as Accountant to Aermont
Aermont Capital Real Estate Fund V SCSp a fund managed by Aermont Capital LLP completed the acquisition of 60% stake in Svenska Nyttobostäder AB (publ) (OM:NYTTO) from ALM Equity AB (publ) (OM:ALM) on October 2, 2024. New Risk • Sep 26
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 58% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (58% increase in shares outstanding). Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 04
Independent Director recently bought kr707k worth of stock On the 2nd of September, Johan Unger bought around 4k shares on-market at roughly kr199 per share. This transaction amounted to 2.3% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth kr2.6m. Insiders have collectively bought kr707k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 25
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from kr2.20b to kr2.47b. Forecast losses expected to reduce from -kr8.81 to -kr4.41 per share. Real Estate industry in Sweden expected to see average net income growth of 93% next year. Consensus price target of kr244 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.5% to kr204 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 20
Second quarter 2024 earnings released Second quarter 2024 results: Revenue: kr894.0m (down 34% from 2Q 2023). Net income: kr85.0m (up kr1.43b from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 9.5% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 4.2%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 49 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jun 09
ALM Equity AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2024 ALM Equity AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 39% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from kr2.43b to kr2.20b. Losses expected to increase from kr6.33 per share to kr8.81. Real Estate industry in Sweden expected to see average net income growth of 98% next year. Consensus price target of kr244 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.5% to kr194 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jun 04
First quarter 2024 earnings released First quarter 2024 results: Revenue: kr241.0m (down 9.4% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: kr287.0m (loss widened 163% from 1Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 4.3%. Announcement • May 01
ALM Equity AB (publ) has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of SEK 150.04 million. ALM Equity AB (publ) has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of SEK 150.04 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 682,000
Price\Range: SEK 220
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing New Risk • Apr 08
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swedish stocks, typically moving 8.8% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.6x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.8% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.7% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Apr 01
ALM Equity Comments on the Proposal for A Merger with Swedish Utility Housing and Invites A Presentation of the Proposal The boards of ALM Equity AB (publ) (OM:ALM) ("ALM Equity") and Svenska Nyttobostäder AB (publ) (OM:NYTTO) ("Svenska Nyttobostäder") have proposed a merger of the companies. The aim is to maximize the value of existing assets in Svenska Nyttobostäder and free up liquidity for continued growth. In a dynamic real estate market where change is the only constant, ALM Equity believes that the merged company will be a stronger company and that the merger creates better opportunities to be more aggressive. Clearer focus on development and expansion of own operations. After, in recent years, having restructured large parts of the operations within ALM Småa Bostad into holdings in associated companies, the merger means that ALM Equity now directs its focus towards developing and expanding the company's own operations at the same time as operating cash flows are generated. After the merger, the newALM Equity will own its own portfolio of a total of approximately 3,300 investment homes, which are either completed or close to completion, and from Svenska Nyttobostäder approximately 2,100 building rights are supplied that are ready for the start of production. ALM Equity will build and develop the building rights portfolio at the same time as the supplementary management activities are made more efficient. This creates a good balance between ongoing cash flows from management and transaction flows from property development. The intention with the holdings in Klövern and Aros Bostad is to keep them as long as ALM Equity judges that the company can create added value in the holdings. Plan for development of the assets. ALM Equity's intention for the assets in Svenska Nyttobostäder is to reduce the management portfolio to nearly 2,300 homes by selling just over 1,000 homes as condominiums. The sales value is estimated to amount to approximately SEK 3.2 billion with a debt of approximately SEK 1.9 billion. The divestiture is intended to be carried out over a three-year period and is estimated to have a liquidity effect of approximately SEK 1.3 billion and a positive profit effect of approximately SEK 0.4 billion. The building rights portfolio is intended to be developed to be sold externally as condominiums or management properties. The sales value is estimated to amount to approximately SEK 6.3 billion and is expected over time to be able to free up liquidfunds of approximately SEK 2.3 billion and to have a positive profit effect of approximately SEK 1.1 billion. The development of the building rights portfolio is planned to take place over a six-year period. The total net liquidity effect of these measures is estimated to amount to approximately SEK 3.6 billion after amortization of debts of approximately SEK 2.0 billion. The surplus is intended to be used to repay debts or invest in new and remaining assets. "There is already a basic plan for each asset in Svenska Nyttobostäder's portfolio that we are prepared to work hard to realize. If fully implemented, we estimate that our action plan for the various parts can create values ??of a total of approximately SEK 5 billion over time. Put in relation to the number of ordinary shares in ALM Equity after the merger, it means that our assessment is that the addition of Svenska Nyttobostäder's assets to ALM Equity can over time create shareholder value of around SEK 300 per ordinary share in newALM Equity," says Maria Wideroth, Chairman of the Board of ALM Equity. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2023 earnings released: kr180 loss per share (vs kr78.65 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: kr180 loss per share (further deteriorated from kr78.65 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: kr2.39b (down 65% from FY 2022). Net loss: kr1.98b (loss widened 137% from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 29% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 02
Aros Bostadsutveckling AB (publ) (OM:AROS) made an offer to acquire Besqab AB (publ) (OM:BESQ) from a group of shareholders for SEK 1.8 billion. Aros Bostadsutveckling AB (publ) (OM:AROS) made an offer to acquire Besqab AB (publ) (OM:BESQ) from a group of shareholders for SEK 1.8 billion on January 31, 2024. The consideration for the shareholders in Besqab are offered 1.0417 newly issued common shares and 0.0718 newly issued series B preference shares in Aros Bostad for each existing share in Besqab. The total value of the Offer, based on all outstanding shares in Besqab, amounts to approximately SEK 1.86 billion, equivalent to approximately SEK 40.2 per share in Besqab. If Besqab were to pay dividends or carry out another value transfer before the settlement of the Offer the consideration in the Offer would be reduced accordingly. Assuming full acceptance of the Offer, Aros Bostad will issue approximately 48.1 million new common shares and approximately 3.2 million new series B preference shares. At full acceptance of the Offer, Aros Bostad’s shareholders will hold approximately 53% of the votes and Besqab’s shareholders will hold approximately 47% of the total votes in the New Company and the New Company is proposed to be named Besqab AB (publ). Aros Bostad has obtained irrevocable undertakings and declarations of intent to accept the Offer from shareholders in Besqab representing approximately 73% of the votes and capital in Besqab. Family Douglas (company incl.), Olle Engkvists stiftelse, Sven Jemsten with family (company incl.), Carl Wale with family, Paradeigma Partners AB, Kristian Wale with family (company incl.), Lars Öberg with family (company incl.), Paradigm Capital Value and AB Tuna Holding, representing approximately 36% of the votes and capital in Besqab, have entered irrevocable undertakings to accept the Offer. Additionally, family Nordström (company incl.), whose holdings together represents approximately 37% of the votes and capital in Besqab. Magnus Andersson will become CEO and Anna Jepson will become CFO of the New Company, and the intention is that the New Company’s senior executive management will consist of members from both Aros Bostad’s and Besqab’s current senior management teams, which secure continuity and an experienced and competent senior executive management. The board of directors of Besqab unanimously recommends the shareholders of Besqab to accept the Offer. The transaction is subject to Offer being accepted to such an extent that Aros Bostad becomes the owner of more than 90% of all outstanding shares in Besqab (at full dilution), if Aros Bostad undertakes to not complete the Offer if it is not accepted to that extent; approval of the shareholders of Aros Bostad at extraordinary general meeting held on February 16, 2024; Besqab does not resolve to issue shares or other securities in Besqab; any and all necessary regulatory authorisations, approvals, decisions and other actions required from authorities with respect to the Offer and for the completion of the acquisition obtained on terms acceptable to Aros Bostad; and the Offer is not rendered wholly or partly made impossible or significantly impeded as a result of any legislation or other regulation, court decision or order, governmental decision or any similar circumstance which is actual or reasonably foreseeable and which Aros Bostad could not have foreseen at the time of the announcement of the Offer. The acceptance period for the Offer is expected to commence on February 20, 2024 and conclude on March 12, 2024.
The board of directors obtained fairness opinion from Öhrlings PricewaterhouseCoopers AB for recommendation. Aros Bostad has retained SEB Corporate Finance as financial advisor and Baker McKenzie as legal advisor in connection with the Offer. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 14
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 23% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from kr3.03b to kr2.34b. EPS estimate unchanged from -kr124 per share at last update. Real Estate industry in Sweden expected to see average net income growth of 446% next year. Consensus price target down from kr445 to kr360. Share price fell 2.6% to kr300 over the past week. Announcement • Aug 18
Nrep Ab completed the acquisition of Klövern AB (publ) from ALM Equity AB (publ), Broskeppet Bostad AB and Corem Property Group AB (publ) Nrep Ab agreed to acquire Klövern AB (publ) from ALM Equity AB (publ), Broskeppet Bostad AB and Corem Property Group AB (publ) for SEK 2.5 billion on July 3, 2023. As of July 17, 2023, the transaction is expected to be closed by August 2023.Nrep Ab completed the acquisition of Klövern AB (publ) from ALM Equity AB (publ), Broskeppet Bostad AB and Corem Property Group AB (publ) on August 17, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 27
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from kr2.69b to kr3.03b. EPS expected loss of kr116 per share, down from profit of kr14.00 per share previously. Real Estate industry in Sweden expected to see average net income growth of 98% next year. Consensus price target down from kr510 to kr445. Share price was steady at kr496 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 24
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: kr125 loss per share (vs kr123 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: kr125 loss per share (down from kr123 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: kr1.35b (down 70% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: kr1.34b (down 203% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 4.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jul 24
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 3.5% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (3.5% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jul 12
ALM Equity AB (publ) announced that it expects to receive SEK 118 million in funding from Andersson Company Fastighetsutveckling Holding A, Bengtssons Tidnings AB, Batten AB ALM Equity AB announced a private placement of issues maximum of 288,173 ordinary shares of gross proceeds on SEK 118 million on July 10, 2023. The transaction got approved by the general meeting of shareholders. The transaction included the participation from new investors Andersson Company Fastighetsutveckling, Batten AB and Bengtssons Tidnings Aktiebolag subscribed all shares.
On same date, the company announced that issue new shares correspond to an increase in the share capital with a total of SEK 2,881,730. Reported Earnings • Apr 27
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: kr78.64 loss per share (down from kr328 profit in FY 2021). Revenue: kr6.90b (up 229% from FY 2021). Net loss: kr837.0m (down 125% from profit in FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 7.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 77% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2022 earnings released: kr78.64 loss per share (vs kr328 profit in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: kr78.64 loss per share (down from kr328 profit in FY 2021). Revenue: kr6.90b (up 229% from FY 2021). Net loss: kr837.0m (down 125% from profit in FY 2021). Revenue is expected to decline by 50% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Sweden are expected to grow by 7.0%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 77% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. No experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Johan Fredrick Schering Wachtmeister was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2006. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Aug 24
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: kr4.44b (up 490% from 2Q 2021). Net income: kr1.33b (up kr1.33b from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 30% (up from 0% in 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 52% compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 139% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 49% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 26
Independent Director recently bought kr1.4m worth of stock On the 22nd of June, Johan Fredrick Schering Wachtmeister bought around 2k shares on-market at roughly kr690 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr2.7m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 16
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to kr690, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 30x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Total returns to shareholders of 257% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 21
First quarter 2022 earnings released First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: kr895.0m (up 417% from 1Q 2021). Net income: kr134.0m (up kr156.0m from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 15% (up from net loss in 1Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 135% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 66% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Apr 27
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. No experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Johan Fredrick Schering Wachtmeister was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2006. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: kr319 (up from kr10.80 in FY 2020). Revenue: kr5.26b (up 199% from FY 2020). Net income: kr3.39b (up kr3.28b from FY 2020). Profit margin: 64% (up from 6.1% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 128% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 77% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 27
Third quarter 2021 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: kr615.0m (up 186% from 3Q 2020). Net income: kr56.0m (up 374% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.1% (up from 5.5% in 3Q 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 72% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 28
Second quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: kr752.0m (up 169% from 2Q 2020). Net income: kr29.0m (up kr38.4m from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 3.9% (up from net loss in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 55% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 08
Independent Chairman of the Board recently bought kr988k worth of stock On the 2nd of July, Maria Wideroth bought around 1k shares on-market at roughly kr760 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Maria's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS kr19.01 (vs kr20.10 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: kr1.76b (up 4.6% from FY 2019). Net income: kr194.0m (down 3.5% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 11% (down from 12% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 50% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 03
New 90-day low: kr670 The company is down 6.0% from its price of kr710 on 05 November 2020. The Swedish market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 6.0% over the same period. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 05
Independent Director recently sold kr100m worth of stock On the 3rd of December, Johan Fredrick Schering Wachtmeister sold around 140k shares on-market at roughly kr715 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Nov 27
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS kr3.33 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: kr215.0m (down 40% from 3Q 2019). Net income: kr34.0m (up kr33.6m from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 16% (up from 0.1% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 59% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 10
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to kr745, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 33.7x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 28.7x. This compares to an average P/E of 11x in the Real Estate industry in Sweden. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 338%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 05
New 90-day high: kr710 The company is up 35% from its price of kr525 on 06 August 2020. The Swedish market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. 