Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) (STO:SOBI) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of kr6.3b, some 7.8% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at kr2.33, 32% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Swedish Orphan Biovitrum

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's ten analysts is for revenues of kr24.7b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 57% to kr9.89. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr24.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr10.29 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Swedish Orphan Biovitrum after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at kr317, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Swedish Orphan Biovitrum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr370 and the most bearish at kr252 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Swedish Orphan Biovitrum.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Swedish Orphan Biovitrum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Swedish Orphan Biovitrum analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Swedish Orphan Biovitrum that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.