Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) (STO:SOBI) recently reported its full-year numbers. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr22b, although statutory earnings per share came in 13% below what the analysts expected, at kr7.39 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Swedish Orphan Biovitrum

Following the latest results, Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr24.0b in 2024. This would be a solid 8.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 42% to kr10.09. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr24.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr10.46 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at kr314, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Swedish Orphan Biovitrum at kr370 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr252. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 15% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Swedish Orphan Biovitrum is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Swedish Orphan Biovitrum. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Swedish Orphan Biovitrum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Swedish Orphan Biovitrum analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Swedish Orphan Biovitrum that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.