Swedencare (OM:SECARE) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SECARE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SECARE (SEK86.92) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK185.31)

SECARE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

SECARE Stock Overview

Swedencare AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pet healthcare products.

Rewards

Trading at 53.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 36.93% per year

Earnings grew by 69.1% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Profit margins (5.6%) are lower than last year (10.1%)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Swedencare Competitors

Camurus

OM:CAMX

kr10.6b

Karo Pharma

OM:KARO

kr13.9b

Calliditas Therapeutics

OM:CALTX

kr5.2b

IRLAB Therapeutics

OM:IRLAB A

kr1.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Swedencare
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr86.92
52 Week High	kr159.00
52 Week Low	kr67.56
Beta	1.3
1 Month Change	-6.11%
3 Month Change	-22.32%
1 Year Change	-10.94%
3 Year Change	452.93%
5 Year Change	1,624.60%
Change since IPO	2,314.44%

Shareholder Returns

	SECARE	SE Pharmaceuticals	SE Market
7D	0.2%	1.4%	-1.3%
1Y	-10.9%	-15.4%	-23.6%

Return vs Industry: SECARE exceeded the Swedish Pharmaceuticals industry which returned -15.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SECARE exceeded the Swedish Market which returned -23.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SECARE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SECARE volatility
SECARE Average Weekly Movement	9.4%
Pharmaceuticals Industry Average Movement	9.1%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.2%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: SECARE is more volatile than 75% of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SECARE's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Swedish stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1993	517	Hakan Lagerberg	https://www.swedencare.se

Swedencare AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pet healthcare products. It offers ProDen PlaqueOff powder, a food supplement for cats and dogs, which reduce the formation of plaque and tartar; ProDen PlaqueOff dental bites, a pet dental product; ProDen PlaqueOff powder cat; ProDen PlaqueOff dental bones for dogs; ProDen PlaqueOff mini dental care bones, a chewy bone for smaller dogs; and ProDen PlaqueOff soft chews for dogs and cats. The company also provides dietary supplements for cats, dogs, and horses under the NutriScience brand, such as Glucosamine and Stomax used to renew joint cartilage, bones, muscles, ligaments, and sinews; ArthriAid for joints and mobility; KalmAid, which helps to calm nervous dogs; and OmegaAid and RevitalAid, a feed supplement used for healthy skin and coat.

Swedencare Fundamentals Summary

How do Swedencare's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SECARE fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr13.74b
Earnings (TTM)	kr57.23m
Revenue (TTM)	kr1.02b

240.1x

P/E Ratio

13.5x

P/S Ratio

Is SECARE overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SECARE income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr1.02b
Cost of Revenue	kr507.23m
Gross Profit	kr512.04m
Other Expenses	kr454.81m
Earnings	kr57.23m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.36
Gross Margin	50.24%
Net Profit Margin	5.61%
Debt/Equity Ratio	21.1%

How did SECARE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.2%

Current Dividend Yield

43%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SECARE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SECARE?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SECARE. This is calculated by dividing SECARE's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SECARE's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr13.74b

SECARE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	14.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	100x
PEG Ratio	6.5x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SECARE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

SECARE PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for SECARE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.8x
CAMX Camurus	15.2x	27.5%	kr10.6b
KARO Karo Pharma	4.7x	n/a	kr13.9b
CALTX Calliditas Therapeutics	18.5x	52.3%	kr5.2b
IRLAB A IRLAB Therapeutics	8.7x	37.2%	kr1.9b
SECARE Swedencare	13.5x	21.5%	kr13.7b

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SECARE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SECARE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the SE Pharmaceuticals Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SECARE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.5x) compared to the Swedish Pharmaceuticals industry average (15.2x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SECARE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SECARE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	13.5x
Fair PS Ratio	12.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SECARE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SECARE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SECARE (SEK86.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK185.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SECARE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: SECARE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (6.5x)

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Future Growth

How is Swedencare forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

36.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SECARE's forecast earnings growth (36.9% per year) is above the savings rate (0.3%).

Earnings vs Market: SECARE's earnings (36.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (9.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SECARE's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SECARE's revenue (21.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (5.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SECARE's revenue (21.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SECARE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.7%).

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Past Performance

How has Swedencare performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

31.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SECARE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SECARE's current net profit margins (5.6%) are lower than last year (10.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SECARE's earnings have grown significantly by 31.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SECARE's earnings growth over the past year (69.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (31.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SECARE earnings growth over the past year (69.1%) exceeded the Pharmaceuticals industry 17.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SECARE's Return on Equity (0.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Swedencare's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SECARE's short term assets (SEK945.7M) exceed its short term liabilities (SEK495.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: SECARE's short term assets (SEK945.7M) do not cover its long term liabilities (SEK2.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SECARE's net debt to equity ratio (16.8%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: SECARE's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 38.3% to 21.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SECARE's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (11.7%).

Interest Coverage: SECARE's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Swedencare current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.23%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SECARE's dividend (0.23%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.67%).

High Dividend: SECARE's dividend (0.23%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (5.41%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SECARE is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: SECARE is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: SECARE is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: SECARE is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Hakan Lagerberg (53 yo)

2yrs

Tenure

kr2,124,000

Compensation

Mr. Hakan Lagerberg serves as an Independent Director at Polygiene Group AB (formerly known as Polygiene AB (publ.)) since May 17, 2019. He serves as Chief Executive Officer at Swedencare AB (publ) since J...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Hakan's total compensation ($USD209.75K) is below average for companies of similar size in the Swedish market ($USD972.85K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Hakan's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SECARE's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: SECARE's board of directors are considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: SECARE insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 50%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/23 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31