Camurus AB (publ) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Investors in Camurus AB (publ) (STO:CAMX) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.5% to close at kr615 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues of kr480m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of kr2.16 an impressive 32% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Camurus

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Camurus from six analysts is for revenues of kr3.12b in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 85% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 329% to kr19.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr3.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr19.05 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of kr748, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Camurus' market value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Camurus at kr768 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr725. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Camurus is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Camurus' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 63% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 45% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 33% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Camurus to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Camurus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Camurus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Camurus that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.