Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Stillfront Group AB (publ) (STO:SF) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out the opportunities and risks within the SE Entertainment industry.
What Is Stillfront Group's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2022, Stillfront Group had kr5.19b of debt, up from kr3.65b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has kr1.35b in cash leading to net debt of about kr3.84b.
How Strong Is Stillfront Group's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Stillfront Group had liabilities of kr3.20b falling due within a year, and liabilities of kr8.25b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of kr1.35b and kr812.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling kr9.29b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of kr8.43b, we think shareholders really should watch Stillfront Group's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Stillfront Group has net debt worth 2.2 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.1 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Unfortunately, Stillfront Group saw its EBIT slide 2.9% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Stillfront Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Stillfront Group recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 80% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
Neither Stillfront Group's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its interest cover gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Stillfront Group's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Stillfront Group that you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OM:SF
Stillfront Group
Through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, publishes, and sells digital games in Europe, North America, the United Kingdom, and the Middle East and North Africa region.
Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.