Lundin Gold Inc.

OM:LUG Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 146.1b

Lundin Gold Valuation

Is LUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of LUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: LUG (SEK584.4) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (SEK793.48)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: LUG is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUG?

Key metric: As LUG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LUG. This is calculated by dividing LUG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LUG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsUS$911.98m
Market CapUS$15.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.7x
BOL Boliden
14.9x12.32%SEK 169.8b
SSAB A SSAB
18.1x12.00%SEK 94.9b
SCA B Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget
25.7x11.11%SEK 71.4b
EDV Endeavour Mining
16.2x22.18%CA$19.8b
LUG Lundin Gold
17.2x5.81%SEK 21.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (18.7x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

19 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LUG 17.2xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies19PE01224364860+
19 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio24x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 584.40
SEK 757.21
+29.57%
11.26%SEK 919.63SEK 604.14n/a13
May ’27SEK 632.60
SEK 793.66
+25.46%
10.70%SEK 960.23SEK 612.91n/a12
Apr ’27SEK 754.50
SEK 793.86
+5.22%
10.87%SEK 967.38SEK 617.47n/a12
Mar ’27SEK 844.50
SEK 738.57
-12.54%
14.33%SEK 932.93SEK 582.25n/a12
Feb ’27SEK 701.00
SEK 719.10
+2.58%
12.46%SEK 837.40SEK 588.80n/a12
Jan ’27SEK 787.50
SEK 674.52
-14.35%
16.32%SEK 839.65SEK 470.20n/a12
Dec ’26SEK 785.50
SEK 630.78
-19.70%
16.88%SEK 830.54SEK 472.67n/a12
Nov ’26SEK 643.00
SEK 622.32
-3.22%
14.73%SEK 783.25SEK 472.65n/a12
Oct ’26SEK 614.00
SEK 498.79
-18.76%
14.97%SEK 625.45SEK 336.26n/a12
Sep ’26SEK 582.00
SEK 474.50
-18.47%
16.14%SEK 587.37SEK 345.51n/a12
Aug ’26SEK 462.00
SEK 463.51
+0.33%
16.04%SEK 596.19SEK 350.70n/a12
Jul ’26SEK 493.40
SEK 419.03
-15.07%
21.53%SEK 618.13SEK 298.65n/a12
Jun ’26SEK 459.00
SEK 400.49
-12.75%
15.71%SEK 487.03SEK 299.17SEK 592.2012
May ’26SEK 385.60
SEK 354.75
-8.00%
15.35%SEK 462.95SEK 292.39SEK 632.6012
Apr ’26SEK 315.00
SEK 288.18
-8.51%
17.46%SEK 420.02SEK 224.01SEK 754.5012
Mar ’26SEK 302.00
SEK 292.70
-3.08%
12.84%SEK 370.41SEK 238.25SEK 844.5012
Feb ’26SEK 278.50
SEK 282.71
+1.51%
10.76%SEK 335.82SEK 232.79SEK 701.0012
Jan ’26SEK 233.50
SEK 276.14
+18.26%
11.08%SEK 329.48SEK 222.21SEK 787.5013
Dec ’25SEK 251.00
SEK 280.19
+11.63%
10.21%SEK 334.45SEK 225.56SEK 785.5013
Nov ’25SEK 262.00
SEK 250.57
-4.36%
13.77%SEK 321.91SEK 195.44SEK 643.0013
Oct ’25SEK 223.00
SEK 223.25
+0.11%
9.86%SEK 262.82SEK 191.48SEK 614.0013
Sep ’25SEK 203.50
SEK 206.29
+1.37%
8.12%SEK 242.08SEK 189.12SEK 582.0013
Aug ’25SEK 185.00
SEK 207.82
+12.33%
7.61%SEK 239.24SEK 182.83SEK 462.0013
Jul ’25SEK 156.60
SEK 188.62
+20.45%
8.20%SEK 216.07SEK 162.06SEK 493.4013
Jun ’25SEK 154.00
SEK 186.38
+21.02%
8.61%SEK 216.92SEK 162.69SEK 459.0013
SEK 735.09
Fair Value
20.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/03 18:00
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/03 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Lundin Gold Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nicolas DionATB Cormark
Nicolas DionATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities)
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research