Lundin Gold Inc.

OM:LUG Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 57.4b

Lundin Gold Valuation

Is LUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUG (SEK238.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK459.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUG?

Key metric: As LUG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LUG. This is calculated by dividing LUG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LUG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsUS$307.97m
Market CapUS$5.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.8x
SSAB A SSAB
5.6x-0.2%SEK 43.4b
BOL Boliden
9.6x6.9%SEK 83.7b
HOLM B Holmen
22.3x10.0%SEK 62.9b
ALLEI Alleima
13.9x16.6%SEK 18.4b
LUG Lundin Gold
16.9x23.5%SEK 7.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LUG 16.9xIndustry Avg. 11.5xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ratio25.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 238.50
SEK 276.14
+15.8%
11.1%SEK 329.48SEK 222.21n/a13
Dec ’25SEK 251.00
SEK 280.19
+11.6%
10.2%SEK 334.45SEK 225.56n/a13
Nov ’25SEK 262.00
SEK 250.28
-4.5%
13.8%SEK 321.54SEK 195.22n/a13
Oct ’25SEK 223.00
SEK 223.25
+0.1%
9.9%SEK 262.82SEK 191.48n/a13
Sep ’25SEK 203.50
SEK 206.29
+1.4%
8.1%SEK 242.08SEK 189.12n/a13
Aug ’25SEK 185.00
SEK 207.82
+12.3%
7.6%SEK 239.24SEK 182.83n/a13
Jul ’25SEK 156.60
SEK 188.62
+20.4%
8.2%SEK 216.07SEK 162.06n/a13
Jun ’25SEK 154.00
SEK 186.38
+21.0%
8.6%SEK 216.92SEK 162.69n/a13
May ’25SEK 154.00
SEK 182.60
+18.6%
10.9%SEK 221.56SEK 158.25n/a13
Apr ’25SEK 148.00
SEK 163.19
+10.3%
6.4%SEK 179.82SEK 138.33n/a13
Mar ’25SEK 121.80
SEK 156.00
+28.1%
6.5%SEK 173.18SEK 133.22n/a13
Feb ’25SEK 127.20
SEK 159.44
+25.3%
6.7%SEK 176.65SEK 135.89n/a12
Jan ’25SEK 125.60
SEK 154.98
+23.4%
4.4%SEK 166.12SEK 143.47n/a10
Dec ’24SEK 125.40
SEK 159.57
+27.2%
4.7%SEK 173.94SEK 150.22SEK 251.0011
Nov ’24SEK 137.00
SEK 164.36
+20.0%
4.7%SEK 178.16SEK 153.87SEK 262.0011
Oct ’24SEK 123.40
SEK 167.81
+36.0%
4.9%SEK 182.12SEK 157.29SEK 223.0012
Sep ’24SEK 130.80
SEK 163.34
+24.9%
5.1%SEK 177.06SEK 152.92SEK 203.5011
Aug ’24SEK 140.20
SEK 162.63
+16.0%
4.8%SEK 175.18SEK 151.29SEK 185.0010
Jul ’24SEK 128.60
SEK 167.24
+30.0%
5.0%SEK 181.52SEK 155.00SEK 156.6010
Jun ’24SEK 138.80
SEK 165.24
+19.0%
4.6%SEK 178.86SEK 152.74SEK 154.009
May ’24SEK 130.00
SEK 152.81
+17.5%
7.6%SEK 168.37SEK 124.85SEK 154.009
Apr ’24SEK 120.40
SEK 138.87
+15.3%
8.1%SEK 153.35SEK 115.01SEK 148.009
Mar ’24SEK 111.20
SEK 136.47
+22.7%
7.5%SEK 153.53SEK 115.15SEK 121.809
Feb ’24SEK 121.00
SEK 128.49
+6.2%
7.5%SEK 147.71SEK 116.61SEK 127.209
Jan ’24SEK 100.20
SEK 109.72
+9.5%
8.0%SEK 120.04SEK 90.03SEK 125.6010
Dec ’23SEK 107.80
SEK 106.90
-0.8%
10.1%SEK 118.99SEK 88.28SEK 125.4010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 05:32
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lundin Gold Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Carey MacRuryCanaccord Genuity
Anita SoniCIBC Capital Markets