The Holmen AB (publ) (STO:HOLM B) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Holmen AB (publ) (STO:HOLM B) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to kr402 in the week after its latest yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of kr23b and statutory earnings per share of kr23.00 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Holmen is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Holmen

Taking into account the latest results, Holmen's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be kr22.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 13% to kr20.16 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr22.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr19.92 in 2024. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the modest lift to revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of kr413, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Holmen at kr450 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr370. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Holmen's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Holmen is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Holmen. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Holmen going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Holmen that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.