Earnings Beat: Boliden AB (publ) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Boliden AB (publ) (STO:BOL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.2% to kr317 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenues were kr23b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at kr13.20, an impressive 21% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Boliden

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Boliden's 16 analysts is for revenues of kr85.5b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.9% to kr31.19. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr85.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr31.46 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr343, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Boliden, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr450 and the most bearish at kr273 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Boliden shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.5% per year. So although Boliden is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Boliden going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Boliden that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com