Billerud Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of BILL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BILL (SEK107.3) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK139.89)

Is BILL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BILL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BILL (SEK107.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK139.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BILL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BILL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BILL. This is calculated by dividing BILL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BILL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	SEK 26.69b

BILL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.1x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BILL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BILL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.9x
HPOL B HEXPOL	16.9x	6.0%	SEK 41.9b
GRNG Gränges	14.7x	20.9%	SEK 14.6b
ALLEI Alleima	15.1x	18.8%	SEK 18.6b
SSAB A SSAB	4.8x	-8.7%	SEK 56.6b
BILL Billerud	38x	32.3%	SEK 26.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BILL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38x) compared to the peer average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BILL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	13.4%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	13.4%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BILL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BILL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BILL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	38x
Fair PE Ratio	26.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BILL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BILL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	SEK 107.30	SEK 118.57 +10.5%	15.4%	SEK 145.00	SEK 91.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	SEK 98.45	SEK 116.33 +18.2%	14.7%	SEK 140.00	SEK 91.00	n/a	6
Jun ’25	SEK 105.10	SEK 111.83 +6.4%	18.1%	SEK 140.00	SEK 87.00	n/a	6
May ’25	SEK 92.35	SEK 104.33 +13.0%	14.0%	SEK 130.00	SEK 87.00	n/a	6
Apr ’25	SEK 96.02	SEK 103.17 +7.4%	12.9%	SEK 126.00	SEK 88.00	n/a	6
Mar ’25	SEK 90.76	SEK 102.00 +12.4%	14.5%	SEK 126.00	SEK 83.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	SEK 91.84	SEK 102.71 +11.8%	14.4%	SEK 126.00	SEK 83.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	SEK 102.40	SEK 103.57 +1.1%	13.9%	SEK 126.00	SEK 84.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	SEK 104.25	SEK 103.57 -0.7%	13.9%	SEK 126.00	SEK 84.00	n/a	7
Nov ’24	SEK 103.00	SEK 102.57 -0.4%	14.0%	SEK 126.00	SEK 84.00	n/a	7
Oct ’24	SEK 101.35	SEK 94.71 -6.5%	13.8%	SEK 112.00	SEK 75.00	n/a	7
Sep ’24	SEK 90.58	SEK 91.57 +1.1%	12.1%	SEK 110.00	SEK 75.00	n/a	7
Aug ’24	SEK 87.86	SEK 91.57 +4.2%	12.1%	SEK 110.00	SEK 75.00	n/a	7
Jul ’24	SEK 81.96	SEK 100.86 +23.1%	7.0%	SEK 110.00	SEK 91.00	SEK 98.45	7
Jun ’24	SEK 85.10	SEK 108.57 +27.6%	10.5%	SEK 125.00	SEK 91.00	SEK 105.10	7
May ’24	SEK 98.36	SEK 113.57 +15.5%	12.3%	SEK 135.00	SEK 91.00	SEK 92.35	7
Apr ’24	SEK 106.55	SEK 127.43 +19.6%	6.0%	SEK 135.00	SEK 110.00	SEK 96.02	7
Mar ’24	SEK 122.65	SEK 131.00 +6.8%	2.4%	SEK 135.00	SEK 125.00	SEK 90.76	7
Feb ’24	SEK 122.90	SEK 134.83 +9.7%	3.5%	SEK 142.00	SEK 130.00	SEK 91.84	6
Jan ’24	SEK 127.10	SEK 148.00 +16.4%	11.0%	SEK 178.00	SEK 130.00	SEK 102.40	5
Dec ’23	SEK 146.10	SEK 161.00 +10.2%	19.6%	SEK 215.00	SEK 130.00	SEK 104.25	5
Nov ’23	SEK 141.80	SEK 165.00 +16.4%	17.2%	SEK 215.00	SEK 140.00	SEK 103.00	5
Oct ’23	SEK 131.40	SEK 160.80 +22.4%	19.0%	SEK 215.00	SEK 130.00	SEK 101.35	5
Sep ’23	SEK 136.35	SEK 159.25 +16.8%	21.3%	SEK 215.00	SEK 130.00	SEK 90.58	4
Aug ’23	SEK 130.60	SEK 156.25 +19.6%	21.3%	SEK 210.00	SEK 127.00	SEK 87.86	4
Jul ’23	SEK 117.30	SEK 161.76 +37.9%	16.2%	SEK 205.00	SEK 135.00	SEK 81.96	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.