Results: Billerud AB (publ) Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Billerud AB (publ) (STO:BILL) just released its yearly report and things are looking bullish. Billerud beat earnings, with revenues hitting kr43b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 16%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Billerud

Following the latest results, Billerud's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr44.9b in 2025. This would be an okay 3.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 12% to kr7.88. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr44.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr7.78 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of kr130, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Billerud's valuation in the near term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Billerud at kr152 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr113. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Billerud's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this to the 34 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Billerud is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr130, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Billerud analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Billerud you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.