Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Arjo AB (publ) (STO:ARJO B) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Arjo
What Is Arjo's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2023 Arjo had kr5.15b of debt, an increase on kr4.70b, over one year. On the flip side, it has kr902.0m in cash leading to net debt of about kr4.25b.
How Strong Is Arjo's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Arjo had liabilities of kr4.23b due within 12 months, and liabilities of kr4.22b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of kr902.0m and kr2.43b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by kr5.12b.
This deficit isn't so bad because Arjo is worth kr12.7b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Arjo has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.9 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 6.4 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Shareholders should be aware that Arjo's EBIT was down 29% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Arjo's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Arjo recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 82% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
Arjo's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. It's also worth noting that Arjo is in the Medical Equipment industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Arjo's debt levels. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Arjo you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OM:ARJO B
Arjo
Develops and sells medical devices and solutions for patients for clinical and financial outcomes for healthcare in Europe, Asia and Pacific, South America, Africa, and internationally.
Very undervalued with solid track record.