Is Medfield Diagnostics (NGM:MEDF) In A Good Position To Deliver On Growth Plans?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 12, 2022
NGM:MEDF
Source: Shutterstock

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

So, the natural question for Medfield Diagnostics (NGM:MEDF) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. Let's start with an examination of the business' cash, relative to its cash burn.

See our latest analysis for Medfield Diagnostics

How Long Is Medfield Diagnostics' Cash Runway?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. When Medfield Diagnostics last reported its balance sheet in December 2021, it had zero debt and cash worth kr10m. Importantly, its cash burn was kr15m over the trailing twelve months. That means it had a cash runway of around 8 months as of December 2021. That's quite a short cash runway, indicating the company must either reduce its annual cash burn or replenish its cash. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NGM:MEDF Debt to Equity History May 12th 2022

How Is Medfield Diagnostics' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

In our view, Medfield Diagnostics doesn't yet produce significant amounts of operating revenue, since it reported just kr8.0m in the last twelve months. As a result, we think it's a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we'll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. As it happens, the company's cash burn reduced by 8.5% over the last year, which suggests that management may be mindful of the risks of their depleting cash reserves. Medfield Diagnostics makes us a little nervous due to its lack of substantial operating revenue. So we'd generally prefer stocks from this list of stocks that have analysts forecasting growth.

How Easily Can Medfield Diagnostics Raise Cash?

While Medfield Diagnostics is showing a solid reduction in its cash burn, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Since it has a market capitalisation of kr241m, Medfield Diagnostics' kr15m in cash burn equates to about 6.4% of its market value. That's a low proportion, so we figure the company would be able to raise more cash to fund growth, with a little dilution, or even to simply borrow some money.

So, Should We Worry About Medfield Diagnostics' Cash Burn?

On this analysis of Medfield Diagnostics' cash burn, we think its cash burn relative to its market cap was reassuring, while its cash runway has us a bit worried. Even though we don't think it has a problem with its cash burn, the analysis we've done in this article does suggest that shareholders should give some careful thought to the potential cost of raising more money in the future. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Medfield Diagnostics you should be aware of, and 3 of them shouldn't be ignored.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies insiders are buying, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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