AAK AB (publ.) Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

The annual results for AAK AB (publ.) (STO:AAK) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. AAK AB (publ.) missed revenue estimates by 2.1%, coming in atkr46b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.35 beat expectations, coming in 5.9% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AAK AB (publ.) after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for AAK AB (publ.)

Following last week's earnings report, AAK AB (publ.)'s five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be kr45.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.1% to kr11.92. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr46.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.19 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of kr248, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on AAK AB (publ.), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr320 and the most bearish at kr180 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AAK AB (publ.) shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AAK AB (publ.)'s revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around AAK AB (publ.)'s earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AAK AB (publ.)'s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr248, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for AAK AB (publ.) going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether AAK AB (publ.) is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.