Kambi Group plc Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Kambi Group plc (STO:KAMBI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with €43m revenue coming in 2.2% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.083 missed the mark badly, arriving some 36% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Kambi Group after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Kambi Group

Following last week's earnings report, Kambi Group's three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €177.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 27% to €0.39 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €181.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.41 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the kr180 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Kambi Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr240 and the most bearish at kr117 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Kambi Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Kambi Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at kr180, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Kambi Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Kambi Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.