What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. Having said that, after a brief look, Acroud (STO:ACROUD) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Acroud:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.038 = €1.5m ÷ (€47m - €8.5m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
Therefore, Acroud has an ROCE of 3.8%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 25%.
View our latest analysis for Acroud
In the above chart we have measured Acroud's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Acroud for free.
The Trend Of ROCE
In terms of Acroud's historical ROCE trend, it isn't fantastic. The company used to generate 18% on its capital five years ago but it has since fallen noticeably. What's equally concerning is that the amount of capital deployed in the business has shrunk by 36% over that same period. When you see both ROCE and capital employed diminishing, it can often be a sign of a mature and shrinking business that might be in structural decline. If these underlying trends continue, we wouldn't be too optimistic going forward.
While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 18%, which has impacted the ROCE. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. While the ratio isn't currently too high, it's worth keeping an eye on this because if it gets particularly high, the business could then face some new elements of risk.
What We Can Learn From Acroud's ROCE
To see Acroud reducing the capital employed in the business in tandem with diminishing returns, is concerning. Unsurprisingly then, the stock has dived 87% over the last five years, so investors are recognizing these changes and don't like the company's prospects. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for Acroud (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
While Acroud isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.