Bonava AB (publ) (STO:BONAV B) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Bonava AB (publ) (STO:BONAV B) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results overall weren't great; even though revenues of kr1.4b beat expectations by 11%, statutory losses ballooned to kr1.23 per share, substantially worse than the analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Bonava

After the latest results, the consensus from Bonava's three analysts is for revenues of kr7.84b in 2025, which would reflect a sizeable 22% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Bonava is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of kr0.64 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr7.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.55 in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Bonava's future following the latest results, with a substantial gain in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of kr17.00, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Bonava analyst has a price target of kr25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr9.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bonava's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Bonava's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 18% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 6.3% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Bonava to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Bonava's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bonava going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Bonava that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.