Transfer Group AB (publ)'s (NGM:TRNSF) Shares Leap 26% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story

Transfer Group AB (publ) (NGM:TRNSF) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 55%.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Transfer Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Commercial Services industry in Sweden, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Transfer Group

What Does Transfer Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

Transfer Group has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to only keep up with the broader industry, which has keeping the P/S in line with expectations. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Transfer Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Transfer Group's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 26%. The latest three year period has also seen an incredible overall rise in revenue, aided by its incredible short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have been over the moon with those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 5.6% over the next year, materially lower than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it interesting that Transfer Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance is at its limits and have been accepting lower selling prices.

What We Can Learn From Transfer Group's P/S?

Transfer Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

To our surprise, Transfer Group revealed its three-year revenue trends aren't contributing to its P/S as much as we would have predicted, given they look better than current industry expectations. It'd be fair to assume that potential risks the company faces could be the contributing factor to the lower than expected P/S. It appears some are indeed anticipating revenue instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Transfer Group (including 3 which are a bit concerning).

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com