Systemair AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a sad week for Systemair AB (publ) (STO:SYSR), who've watched their investment drop 14% to kr70.00 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of kr2.8b missing analyst predictions by 2.9%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of kr0.12 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Systemair

Taking into account the latest results, Systemair's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be kr12.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 26% to kr3.81 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr12.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.21 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of kr84.25, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Systemair's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Systemair at kr91.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr78.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Systemair's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Systemair.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Systemair going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Systemair (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.