Results: Saab AB (publ) Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Saab AB (publ) (STO:SAAB B) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.6% to kr237. The result was positive overall - although revenues of kr14b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Saab surprised by delivering a statutory profit of kr1.79 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Saab

Following the latest results, Saab's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr71.7b in 2025. This would be a major 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 34% to kr9.91. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr71.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr9.86 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr263, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Saab, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr294 and the most bearish at kr225 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Saab is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Saab's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. Saab is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Saab going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Saab that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.