MilDef Group AB (publ) Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The third-quarter results for MilDef Group AB (publ) (STO:MILDEF) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr250m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 51%, coming in at kr0.43 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for MilDef Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MilDef Group from dual analysts is for revenues of kr1.46b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 29% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 105% to kr2.81. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr1.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.74 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on MilDef Group's earnings potential following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 6.5% to kr98.50.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MilDef Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 15% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MilDef Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards MilDef Group following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of MilDef Group's balance sheet, and whether we think MilDef Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.