ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA B) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA B) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to kr295 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of kr35b were in line with what the analysts predicted, ASSA ABLOY surprised by delivering a statutory profit of kr3.11 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for ASSA ABLOY

Following the latest results, ASSA ABLOY's 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr151.1b in 2024. This would be an okay 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.5% to kr14.04. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr149.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr13.91 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at kr318. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ASSA ABLOY, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr361 and the most bearish at kr275 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASSA ABLOY's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 15 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ASSA ABLOY's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for ASSA ABLOY going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that ASSA ABLOY is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.