Some May Be Optimistic About Alligo's (STO:ALLIGO B) Earnings

The market for Alligo AB (publ)'s (STO:ALLIGO B) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. We did some digging, and we believe the earnings are stronger than they seem.

See our latest analysis for Alligo

Zooming In On Alligo's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Alligo has an accrual ratio of -0.11 for the year to December 2024. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of kr841m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of kr274.0m. Alligo shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Alligo's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Alligo has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Alligo's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Alligo.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Alligo's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.