Earnings Miss: Alligo AB (publ) Missed EPS By 47% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Alligo AB (publ) (STO:ALLIGO B) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to kr128 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of kr2.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 47% to hit kr0.46 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Alligo

Following the latest results, Alligo's twin analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr9.88b in 2024. This would be a modest 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 15% to kr10.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr9.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr10.78 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Alligo after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at kr178, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.4% per year. So although Alligo is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr178, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Alligo that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.