Results: Swedbank AB (publ) Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Swedbank AB (publ) (STO:SWED A) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 9.9% to hit kr19b. Swedbank also reported a statutory profit of kr8.30, which was an impressive 20% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Swedbank

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 14 analysts covering Swedbank, is for revenues of kr66.3b in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 10% reduction in Swedbank's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 19% to kr25.06 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr65.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr24.73 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr238, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Swedbank, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr264 and the most bearish at kr215 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Swedbank is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.4% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 2.1% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Swedbank, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also made no changes to their revenue estimates, implying the business is not expected to experience any major impacts to the current trajectory in the near term, even though it is expected to trail the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr238, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Swedbank going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Swedbank (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.