Estimating The Fair Value Of Saudi Ground Services Company (TADAWUL:4031)

Key Insights

• Saudi Ground Services' estimated fair value is ر.س26.33 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Saudi Ground Services' ر.س22.82 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Saudi Ground Services' peers are currently trading at a premium of 115% on average

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Saudi Ground Services Company (TADAWUL:4031) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Saudi Ground Services

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (SAR, Millions)	ر.س204.0m	ر.س256.8m	ر.س310.1m	ر.س363.5m	ر.س417.1m	ر.س471.2m	ر.س526.7m	ر.س584.2m	ر.س644.4m	ر.س708.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 33.12%	Est @ 25.86%	Est @ 20.78%	Est @ 17.22%	Est @ 14.73%	Est @ 12.99%	Est @ 11.77%	Est @ 10.91%	Est @ 10.32%	Est @ 9.90%
Present Value (SAR, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	ر.س177	ر.س194	ر.س203	ر.س207	ر.س206	ر.س202	ر.س196	ر.س189	ر.س181	ر.س173

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ر.س1.9b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (8.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ر.س708m× (1 + 8.9%) ÷ (15%– 8.9%) = ر.س12b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ر.س12b÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= ر.س3.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ر.س5.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ر.س22.8, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Saudi Ground Services as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.870. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Saudi Ground Services, we've put together three fundamental elements you should explore:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Saudi Ground Services that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Saudi stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.