Arabian Centres Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4321 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4321 (SAR19.78) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR33.23)

Is 4321 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4321 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4321 (SAR19.78) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR33.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4321 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4321?

Key metric: As 4321 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4321. This is calculated by dividing 4321's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4321's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.8x
Earnings	ر.س1.37b
Market Cap	ر.س9.39b

4321 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	10.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.7x
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4321's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4321 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	36.1x
4150 Arriyadh Development	13.6x	13.8%	ر.س4.8b
9519 Banan Real Estate	46.1x	n/a	ر.س1.6b
4020 Saudi Real Estate	51.2x	62.5%	ر.س9.4b
4322 Retal Urban Development	33.6x	27.1%	ر.س7.7b
4321 Arabian Centres	6.8x	5.4%	ر.س9.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4321 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the peer average (36.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4321's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Real Estate Industry?

48 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

48 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4321 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the Asian Real Estate industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4321's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4321 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.8x
Fair PE Ratio	18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4321 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4321 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س19.78	ر.س24.21 +22.4%	9.5%	ر.س26.00	ر.س20.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	ر.س20.60	ر.س23.93 +16.2%	9.2%	ر.س26.00	ر.س20.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	ر.س21.66	ر.س23.48 +8.4%	10.4%	ر.س26.00	ر.س20.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	ر.س22.58	ر.س23.48 +4.0%	10.4%	ر.س26.00	ر.س20.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	ر.س20.02	ر.س23.48 +17.3%	10.4%	ر.س26.00	ر.س20.00	n/a	5
Jul ’25	ر.س20.10	ر.س23.86 +18.7%	8.3%	ر.س26.00	ر.س21.31	n/a	5
Jun ’25	ر.س20.58	ر.س23.86 +15.9%	8.3%	ر.س26.00	ر.س21.31	n/a	5
May ’25	ر.س24.98	ر.س22.27 -10.8%	4.4%	ر.س23.60	ر.س21.31	n/a	3
Apr ’25	ر.س24.80	ر.س22.27 -10.2%	4.4%	ر.س23.60	ر.س21.31	n/a	3
Mar ’25	ر.س21.22	ر.س23.45 +10.5%	9.4%	ر.س27.00	ر.س21.31	n/a	4
Feb ’25	ر.س20.20	ر.س23.88 +18.2%	9.0%	ر.س27.00	ر.س21.31	n/a	5
Jan ’25	ر.س20.72	ر.س23.88 +15.3%	9.0%	ر.س27.00	ر.س21.31	n/a	5
Dec ’24	ر.س19.86	ر.س24.02 +20.9%	9.3%	ر.س27.00	ر.س21.31	n/a	6
Nov ’24	ر.س20.14	ر.س24.02 +19.2%	9.3%	ر.س27.00	ر.س21.31	ر.س20.60	6
Oct ’24	ر.س19.68	ر.س24.02 +22.0%	9.3%	ر.س27.00	ر.س21.31	ر.س21.66	6
Sep ’24	ر.س22.40	ر.س23.42 +4.6%	8.4%	ر.س26.00	ر.س21.31	ر.س22.58	5
Aug ’24	ر.س22.94	ر.س23.41 +2.1%	8.4%	ر.س26.00	ر.س21.31	ر.س20.02	5
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س23.16 0%	8.5%	ر.س26.00	ر.س21.31	ر.س20.10	5
Jun ’24	ر.س20.98	ر.س23.16 +10.4%	8.5%	ر.س26.00	ر.س21.31	ر.س20.58	5
May ’24	ر.س21.70	ر.س23.06 +6.3%	8.0%	ر.س25.50	ر.س21.31	ر.س24.98	5
Apr ’24	ر.س20.38	ر.س23.00 +12.9%	8.2%	ر.س25.50	ر.س21.20	ر.س24.80	5
Mar ’24	ر.س19.60	ر.س23.45 +19.7%	8.2%	ر.س25.50	ر.س21.31	ر.س21.22	6
Feb ’24	ر.س20.00	ر.س23.57 +17.8%	7.1%	ر.س25.50	ر.س21.40	ر.س20.20	6
Jan ’24	ر.س19.04	ر.س23.57 +23.8%	7.1%	ر.س25.50	ر.س21.40	ر.س20.72	6
Dec ’23	ر.س20.00	ر.س23.57 +17.8%	7.1%	ر.س25.50	ر.س21.40	ر.س19.86	6
Nov ’23	ر.س19.16	ر.س23.70 +23.7%	7.9%	ر.س25.60	ر.س21.20	ر.س20.14	6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.