Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Valuation

Is 4300 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4300 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4300 (SAR14.96) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR10.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4300 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4300?

Key metric: As 4300 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4300. This is calculated by dividing 4300's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4300's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	24.9x
Earnings	ر.س648.20m
Market Cap	ر.س16.16b

4300 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.1x
PEG Ratio	1.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4300's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4300 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.3x
4322 Retal Urban Development	35.7x	27.1%	ر.س8.2b
4323 Sumou Real Estate	20.7x	n/a	ر.س2.2b
9591 View United Real Estate Development	13.4x	n/a	ر.س250.8m
4321 Arabian Centres	7.4x	-8.1%	ر.س10.1b
4300 Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development	24.9x	13.9%	ر.س16.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4300 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the peer average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4300's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Real Estate Industry?

51 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

51 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4300 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the Asian Real Estate industry average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4300's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4300 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	24.9x
Fair PE Ratio	21.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4300 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4300 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س14.96	ر.س14.65 -2.1%	18.8%	ر.س18.30	ر.س11.00	n/a	4
Dec ’25	ر.س16.00	ر.س14.65 -8.4%	18.8%	ر.س18.30	ر.س11.00	n/a	4
Nov ’25	ر.س16.66	ر.س14.15 -15.1%	15.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س11.00	n/a	4
Oct ’25	ر.س15.46	ر.س14.15 -8.5%	15.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س11.00	n/a	4
Sep ’25	ر.س14.48	ر.س14.15 -2.3%	15.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س11.00	n/a	4
Aug ’25	ر.س13.48	ر.س14.15 +5.0%	15.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س11.00	n/a	4
Jul ’25	ر.س11.66	ر.س14.13 +21.1%	15.9%	ر.س16.80	ر.س10.90	n/a	4
Jun ’25	ر.س11.94	ر.س14.43 +20.9%	17.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س10.90	n/a	3
May ’25	ر.س13.14	ر.س14.43 +9.8%	17.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س10.90	n/a	3
Apr ’25	ر.س14.10	ر.س14.43 +2.4%	17.6%	ر.س16.80	ر.س10.90	n/a	3
Mar ’25	ر.س13.96	ر.س13.60 -2.6%	23.5%	ر.س16.80	ر.س10.40	n/a	2
Feb ’25	ر.س12.86	ر.س13.60 +5.8%	23.5%	ر.س16.80	ر.س10.40	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.