Arriyadh Development Co. (TADAWUL:4150) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

When close to half the companies in Saudi Arabia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 20x, you may consider Arriyadh Development Co. (TADAWUL:4150) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 28.3x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

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As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Arriyadh Development over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Arriyadh Development

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Arriyadh Development's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Arriyadh Development's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 17% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 41% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 12% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Arriyadh Development is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Arriyadh Development currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Arriyadh Development you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Arriyadh Development. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.