The three-year loss for Southern Province Cement (TADAWUL:3050) shareholders likely driven by its shrinking earnings

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Southern Province Cement Company (TADAWUL:3050) shareholders, since the share price is down 50% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 15%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 5.9% over the last week.

The recent uptick of 5.9% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Southern Province Cement

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years that the share price fell, Southern Province Cement's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 23% each year. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 21% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time, despite the disappointment. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that Southern Province Cement has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Southern Province Cement the TSR over the last 3 years was -46%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Southern Province Cement shareholders are down 16% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 3.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Southern Province Cement is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

But note: Southern Province Cement may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Saudi exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.