Saudi Basic Industries Corporation

SASE:2010 Stock Report

Market Cap: ر.س257.7b

Saudi Basic Industries Valuation

Is 2010 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2010 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2010 (SAR85.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR147.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2010 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2010?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

2010 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA16.3x
PEG Ratio3.3x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 2010's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 2010 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.2x
2310 Sahara International Petrochemical
3.3x3.3%ر.س24.9b
2223 Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef
2.8x1.1%ر.س26.2b
2290 Yanbu National Petrochemical
4.9x13.0%ر.س22.3b
2350 Saudi Kayan Petrochemical
1.8x7.6%ر.س14.8b
2010 Saudi Basic Industries
1.8x5.0%ر.س257.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 2010 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the peer average (3.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2010's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Chemicals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a45.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a45.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 2010 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the Asian Chemicals industry average (1.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2010's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2010 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.8x
Fair PS Ratio4.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 2010 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2010 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentر.س85.70
ر.س92.51
+8.0%
17.3%ر.س141.00ر.س74.00n/a14
Apr ’25ر.س78.70
ر.س92.30
+17.3%
17.2%ر.س141.00ر.س74.00n/a14
Mar ’25ر.س78.80
ر.س91.91
+16.6%
18.9%ر.س141.00ر.س72.00n/a12
Feb ’25ر.س78.40
ر.س93.52
+19.3%
17.9%ر.س141.00ر.س72.00n/a14
Jan ’25ر.س83.70
ر.س94.60
+13.0%
14.9%ر.س131.00ر.س72.00n/a14
Dec ’24ر.س79.20
ر.س95.47
+20.5%
14.3%ر.س131.00ر.س73.90n/a14
Nov ’24ر.س75.70
ر.س98.76
+30.5%
12.5%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a14
Oct ’24ر.س82.70
ر.س99.14
+19.9%
12.6%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a14
Sep ’24ر.س88.40
ر.س98.88
+11.9%
12.6%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a14
Aug ’24ر.س85.10
ر.س100.62
+18.2%
13.6%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a12
Jul ’24n/a
ر.س101.41
0%
13.5%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a12
Jun ’24ر.س88.30
ر.س101.41
+14.8%
13.5%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a12
May ’24ر.س91.20
ر.س102.02
+11.9%
12.7%ر.س131.00ر.س78.00n/a12
Apr ’24ر.س90.30
ر.س102.08
+13.0%
13.4%ر.س134.00ر.س78.00ر.س78.7012
Mar ’24ر.س89.10
ر.س102.52
+15.1%
13.8%ر.س134.00ر.س78.00ر.س78.8012
Feb ’24ر.س92.90
ر.س102.31
+10.1%
13.9%ر.س134.00ر.س78.00ر.س78.4012
Jan ’24ر.س90.00
ر.س102.98
+14.4%
17.3%ر.س150.00ر.س78.00ر.س83.7012
Dec ’23ر.س84.00
ر.س105.77
+25.9%
17.2%ر.س150.00ر.س78.00ر.س79.2012
Nov ’23ر.س87.00
ر.س110.78
+27.3%
15.3%ر.س150.00ر.س85.00ر.س75.7012
Oct ’23ر.س88.80
ر.س116.53
+31.2%
13.1%ر.س150.00ر.س90.00ر.س82.7011
Sep ’23ر.س99.00
ر.س117.93
+19.1%
12.6%ر.س150.00ر.س90.00ر.س88.4011
Aug ’23ر.س102.00
ر.س120.32
+18.0%
12.9%ر.س150.00ر.س90.00ر.س85.1012
Jul ’23ر.س101.60
ر.س122.67
+20.7%
10.8%ر.س150.00ر.س105.00n/a12
Jun ’23ر.س113.60
ر.س126.57
+11.4%
11.5%ر.س150.00ر.س105.00ر.س88.3011
May ’23ر.س131.00
ر.س124.12
-5.3%
12.5%ر.س150.00ر.س98.00ر.س91.2013
Apr ’23ر.س131.00
ر.س123.30
-5.9%
11.9%ر.س150.00ر.س98.00ر.س90.3013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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