Yanbu National Petrochemical Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2290 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2290 (SAR37.9) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR55.11)

Is 2290 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2290 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2290 (SAR37.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR55.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2290 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2290?

Key metric: As 2290 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2290. This is calculated by dividing 2290's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2290's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	45x
Earnings	ر.س473.34m
Market Cap	ر.س21.32b

2290 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.9x
PEG Ratio	1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2290's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2290 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	68.2x
2310 Sahara International Petrochemical	31.5x	35.9%	ر.س17.8b
2223 Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef	18.3x	20.8%	ر.س18.9b
2250 Saudi Industrial Investment Group	62.8x	47.6%	ر.س12.6b
2330 Advanced Petrochemical	160.2x	89.8%	ر.س8.3b
2290 Yanbu National Petrochemical	45x	27.8%	ر.س21.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2290 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45x) compared to the peer average (68.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2290's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Chemicals Industry?

40 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

40 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2290 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45x) compared to the Asian Chemicals industry average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2290's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2290 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	45x
Fair PE Ratio	33.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2290 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2290 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س37.90	ر.س39.58 +4.4%	10.1%	ر.س47.00	ر.س34.10	n/a	9
Dec ’25	ر.س37.60	ر.س39.58 +5.3%	10.1%	ر.س47.00	ر.س34.10	n/a	9
Nov ’25	ر.س39.80	ر.س40.57 +1.9%	9.7%	ر.س47.00	ر.س34.20	n/a	11
Oct ’25	ر.س42.70	ر.س39.25 -8.1%	10.3%	ر.س45.00	ر.س32.00	n/a	11
Sep ’25	ر.س40.15	ر.س39.25 -2.2%	10.3%	ر.س45.00	ر.س32.00	n/a	11
Aug ’25	ر.س39.85	ر.س39.17 -1.7%	11.2%	ر.س45.00	ر.س32.00	n/a	13
Jul ’25	ر.س37.10	ر.س39.86 +7.4%	11.0%	ر.س45.92	ر.س32.50	n/a	14
Jun ’25	ر.س36.20	ر.س39.79 +9.9%	11.2%	ر.س45.92	ر.س32.00	n/a	14
May ’25	ر.س38.65	ر.س39.82 +3.0%	11.1%	ر.س45.92	ر.س32.00	n/a	14
Apr ’25	ر.س37.70	ر.س41.07 +8.9%	13.2%	ر.س48.50	ر.س32.00	n/a	14
Mar ’25	ر.س37.45	ر.س41.07 +9.7%	13.2%	ر.س48.50	ر.س32.00	n/a	14
Feb ’25	ر.س37.95	ر.س41.14 +8.4%	13.7%	ر.س48.50	ر.س32.00	n/a	13
Jan ’25	ر.س38.10	ر.س42.62 +11.9%	12.1%	ر.س49.00	ر.س32.00	n/a	13
Dec ’24	ر.س37.65	ر.س43.04 +14.3%	11.1%	ر.س49.00	ر.س32.00	ر.س37.60	12
Nov ’24	ر.س37.50	ر.س43.69 +16.5%	11.4%	ر.س51.00	ر.س33.00	ر.س39.80	12
Oct ’24	ر.س41.45	ر.س44.66 +7.7%	11.1%	ر.س51.00	ر.س33.00	ر.س42.70	12
Sep ’24	ر.س42.30	ر.س44.76 +5.8%	10.1%	ر.س51.00	ر.س34.00	ر.س40.15	12
Aug ’24	ر.س45.25	ر.س44.84 -0.9%	9.9%	ر.س50.00	ر.س34.00	ر.س39.85	12
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س44.21 0%	10.5%	ر.س50.00	ر.س34.00	ر.س37.10	13
Jun ’24	ر.س42.50	ر.س44.15 +3.9%	10.5%	ر.س50.00	ر.س34.00	ر.س36.20	13
May ’24	ر.س44.15	ر.س44.24 +0.2%	9.2%	ر.س50.00	ر.س35.00	ر.س38.65	13
Apr ’24	ر.س42.15	ر.س43.78 +3.9%	10.2%	ر.س50.00	ر.س35.00	ر.س37.70	13
Mar ’24	ر.س42.05	ر.س44.08 +4.8%	10.9%	ر.س50.00	ر.س35.00	ر.س37.45	12
Feb ’24	ر.س44.05	ر.س43.98 -0.2%	11.3%	ر.س50.00	ر.س35.00	ر.س37.95	11
Jan ’24	ر.س41.40	ر.س50.75 +22.6%	18.4%	ر.س74.00	ر.س38.00	ر.س38.10	11
Dec ’23	ر.س41.10	ر.س54.28 +32.1%	16.7%	ر.س74.00	ر.س42.00	ر.س37.65	11

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/30 00:19
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Yanbu National Petrochemical Company is covered by 26 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
null null	Alembic Global Advisors
Jassim Al-Jubran	Aljazira Capital Company
Mazen Al-Sudairi	Al Rajhi Capital