If You Had Bought Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical (TADAWUL:2380) Stock Five Years Ago, You Could Pocket A 46% Gain Today

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 27, 2021
SASE:2380

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company (TADAWUL:2380) share price is up 46% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Unfortunately the share price is down 29% in the last year.

See our latest analysis for Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical actually saw its EPS drop 28% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

In contrast revenue growth of 4.4% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SASE:2380 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 28th 2021

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical's TSR of 49% over the last 5 years is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 6.4% in the last year, Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical shareholders lost 29%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical that you should be aware of.

But note: Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SA exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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