Shareholders in Saudi Arabian Oil (TADAWUL:2222) are in the red if they invested three years ago

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. We regret to report that long term Saudi Arabian Oil Company (TADAWUL:2222) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 31% in three years, versus a market decline of about 13%.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Saudi Arabian Oil saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 12% per year, over the last three years. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 12% per year. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

This free interactive report on Saudi Arabian Oil's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Saudi Arabian Oil the TSR over the last 3 years was -19%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

The total return of 10% received by Saudi Arabian Oil shareholders over the last year isn't far from the market return of -10%. The silver lining is that longer term investors would have made a total return of 0.2% per year over half a decade. If the stock price has been impacted by changing sentiment, rather than deteriorating business conditions, it could spell opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Saudi Arabian Oil you should be aware of.

But note: Saudi Arabian Oil may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Saudi exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.