Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company (TADAWUL:1111) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week, you might have seen that Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company (TADAWUL:1111) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to ر.س251 in the past week. Revenues came in 2.1% below expectations, at ر.س388m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ر.س3.25 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's seven analysts is for revenues of ر.س1.45b in 2024. This would reflect a notable 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 21% to ر.س5.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س1.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س5.47 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ر.س219 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Saudi Tadawul Group Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ر.س262 and the most bearish at ر.س162 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Saudi Tadawul Group Holding is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 24% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 5.5% annual decline over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 8.4% annually. Not only are Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Saudi Tadawul Group Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.